Argus International TraqPak analysts estimate that North American business aircraft flight activity will increase 25.4 percent year-over-year in the first six months of 2021, but will still be down 13.2 percent from 2019. “As we move into 2021, we see plenty of reasons for cautious optimism for our agile industry,” said Argus v-p of market intelligence Travis Kuhn.
Flying is expected to see year-over-year growth starting next month, following January’s 10.4 percent decline from a year ago (-10.8 percent from January 2019) and this month’s estimated fall of about 15 percent from both February 2020 and 2019. April activity is projected to climb a whopping 196 percent from a year earlier, when flight activity cratered as much of the U.S. was mired in pandemic lockdowns. However, that would still be off by 15.5 percent from April 2019, Argus said.
June could mark the industry’s return to a more normal (pre-pandemic) level, down by an estimated 6.5 percent from 2019. Kuhn is optimistic about the second half of the year, though Argus isn’t able to accurately forecast that far out. “As we closely monitor the vaccine rollout, we will be looking at how business aviation’s recovery will follow,” he noted.